Question

At a party you meet a person who claims to have been to the same school...

At a party you meet a person who claims to have been to the same school as you. You vaguely recognize them but can’t remember properly so decided to work out how likely it is given that

1 in 2 of the people you vaguely recognize went to school with you

1 in 10 of the people at the party went to school with you

1 in 5 people at the party you vaguely recognize

Use Bayes’ rule to solve

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