Question

A new medical procedure has been shown to be effective in the early detection of a novel virus. A medical screening of the population is proposed.

Let *D* denote the event that one has the disease, then
*D ^{’}* denotes the event that one doesn’t have the
disease.

Let *+* denote the event that the test signals positive,
and *–* denote the event that the test signals negative.

The probability that a new medical procedure correctly identifies someone with disease as positive (known as the sensitivity) is 0.98, that is P(+/D) = 0.98.

And the probability that the test correctly identifies someone
without the disease as negative (known as the specificity) is 0.99,
that is P(-/D^{'}) = 0.99.

The incidence of the disease in the general population is 0.20, that is P(D) = 0.20.

One takes the test, and the result is positive. What is the probability that one has the disease? Round answer to 4 decimal places.

Answer #1

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Rules:
Turn in one set of solutions with names of all participating
students in the group.
Graphs should be neat, clean and well-labeled. Explain how you
arrived at the conclusions (functions/formulas used in
calculations.)
“Explanations” and answers should given be given in the form of
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