Question

CAN SOMEONE PLEASE ANSWER THIS QUESTION FOR ME? THIS IS MY SECOND TIME POSTING IT. PLEASE DO NOT ANSWER IF YOU DO NOT UNDERSTAND THE PROBLEM. I NEED STEP-BY-STEP HELP IN ORDER TO UNDERSTAND HOW TO SOLVE FUTURE PROBLEMS

The accompanying data file contains 20 observations for t and y_t.
DATA EXCEL FILE:

t	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
yt	13.8	13.1	15.1	9.7	12.1	11	11.1	10.3	13	8.1
t	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20
yt	10.1	10.6	10.7	14.6	11.9	11.8	11.3	10.8	8.1	10.2

b-1. Use the exponential smoothing method to make forecasts with α = 0.2. (Round intermediate calculations to at least 4 decimal places and final answers to 2 decimal places.)

t	yt	yˆty^t
1	13.8
2	13.1
3	15.1
⋮	⋮	⋮
19	8.1
20	10.2
21

b-2. Compute the resulting MSE and MAD. (Round intermediate calculations to at least 4 decimal places and final answers to 2 decimal places.)

MSE
MAD

c-1. Use the exponential smoothing method to make forecasts with α = 0.4. (Round intermediate calculations to at least 4 decimal places and final answers to 2 decimal places.)

t	yt	yˆty^t
1	13.8
2	13.1
3	15.1
⋮	⋮	⋮
19	8.1
20	10.2
21

c-2. Compute the resulting MSE and MAD. (Round intermediate calculations to at least 4 decimal places and final answers to 2 decimal places.)

MSE
MAD

d. Use the appropriate value of α to make a forecast for period 21. (Round intermediate calculations to at least 4 decimal places and final answer to 2 decimal places.)

yˆty^t=

Answer 1

b-1)

t	yt	forecast
1	13.8
2	13.1	13.80
3	15.1	13.66
4	9.7	13.95
5	12.1	13.10
6	11	12.90
7	11.1	12.52
8	10.3	12.24
9	13	11.85
10	8.1	12.08
11	10.1	11.28
12	10.6	11.05
13	10.7	10.96
14	14.6	10.91
15	11.9	11.64
16	11.8	11.70
17	11.3	11.72
18	10.8	11.63
19	8.1	11.47
20	10.2	10.79

b-2)MSE =4.00

MAD=1.52

c-1)

t	yt	forecast
1	13.8
2	13.1	13.80
3	15.1	13.52
4	9.7	14.15
5	12.1	12.37
6	11	12.26
7	11.1	11.76
8	10.3	11.49
9	13	11.02
10	8.1	11.81
11	10.1	10.33
12	10.6	10.24
13	10.7	10.38
14	14.6	10.51
15	11.9	12.15
16	11.8	12.05
17	11.3	11.95
18	10.8	11.69
19	8.1	11.33
20	10.2	10.04

c-2)

MSE=3.84

MAD=1.38

d)

forecast for period 21 =10.10