Question

Carolina Roof Construction sells roofing supplies and equipment. Experience has shown the owner, John Fransen, that...

Carolina Roof Construction sells roofing supplies and equipment. Experience has shown the owner, John Fransen, that the sales have a significant seasonal variability. It is critical that the sales forecasts are accurate so Fransen can plan the cash flow of the business. The file Carolina Roof Construction Spring 2019 contains the sales figures for 2011 to 2018.  Produce a forecast using regression of deseasonalized sales and reseasonalize the forecast. Write a report to Frans and include your forecast for winter, spring, summer and fall sales for Carolina Roof Construction in 2019. Include in your report

a) the typical seasonal indexes for sales using the ratio-to-moving-average method,

b) the deseasonalized trend equation,

c) project sales for 2019 using the trend equation and seasonally adjust these values to find the predicted sales for each quarter.

Year Quarter Sales ($1,000)
2011 Winter 212
Spring 182
Summer 62
Fall 241
2012 Winter 217
Spring 217
Summer 88
Fall 233
2013 Winter 246
Spring 229
Summer 93
Fall 282
2014 Winter 257
Spring 252
Summer 115
Fall 294
2015 Winter 279
Spring 266
Summer 111
Fall 304
2016 Winter 304
Spring 291
Summer 119
Fall 310
2017 Winter 330
Spring 296
Summer 126
Fall 327
2018 Winter 288
Spring 276
Summer 111
Fall 334

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Answer #1

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