Question

Use the Holt’s approach. Determine the best value of alpha and gamma. Show your work on...

  1. Use the Holt’s approach.
  1. Determine the best value of alpha and gamma. Show your work on a spreadsheet.
  2. Use L25 andT25 from the template of the model you obtained in question ‘5’ to calculate the forecast for months 26, 27, and 28. If you could not get the optimal alpha and gamma, use instead alpha = 0.8 and gamma = 0.2 to obtain L25 and T25, and now calculate the requested forecasts. Show your calculations.
  3. As a matter of policy, management will approve borrowing up to a total of $2,000,000 a month (which, in our data set, will be a value of 2000 since the data appear in thousands). For next month (month 26), how confident can management be that all the demand will be met (that is predicted sales will not exceed $2,000,000)? You can use trial and error, or goal seek with the template.

See data in the next page.

Month

Sales
in 1000$

Month

Sales
in 1000$

1

1156

14

1264

2

1101

15

1235

3

1195

16

1357

4

1072

17

1373

5

1237

18

1358

6

1106

19

1489

7

1148

20

1428

8

1005

21

1516

9

1350

22

1681

10

1115

23

1598

11

1196

24

1699

12

1298

25

1781

13

1260

Homework Answers

Answer #1

Alpha specifies the coefficient for the level smoothing.

and

Gamma specifies the coefficient for the seasonal smoothing

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