Question

Read the prelude in your textbook Statistics: Concepts and Controversies(p.xxi-xxiv) and answer the following questions in your own words. Points will be taken off otherwise.a.Why is data more reliable than anecdotes?b.What is “thesinglemost important fact”about a statistical study?Why do you think that is?c.Based on the prelude,can you trust data?Give two reasons why you do or don’t trust data.

Answer 1

A)

• Sample size. Your experience might not indicate a pattern, rather than an exception.
• Confirmation bias and the availability heuristic.
• The fallibility of human memory
• The presence of multiple possible causal factors, and the fundamental attribution error.
• Reporting bias.
• Personal experience uses vague outcome measures, rather than the objective ones we aim for in science.
• Anecdotes don’t allow or rely on controlled observation. Many unknown variables could potentially have affected the perceived outcome,
• Regression to the mean.
• Placebo effects.

C)

1. The person who cut you off in traffic might have been in a hurry, rather than being rude or hateful.

2. Remember the photo of Zuma “snubbing” Obama? We have no idea what happened before or after that shot was taken, yet if you want to confirm your negative impression of Zuma, you assume the worst.