Question

Diseases tend to spread according to the exponential growth model. In the early days of AIDS, the growth factor (i.e. common ratio; growth multiplier) was around 2.2. In 1983, about 1900 people in the U.S. died of AIDS. If the trend had continued unchecked, how many people would have died from AIDS in 2005?

Answer 1

The growth of disease through exponential model is given by:

Where, = No of people who died of Aids in nth year

= No of people who died of Aids in 0th year

(1+r) represents the growth rate.

n = no of years.

From given data:

= 1900

n = 22 years

(1+r) = 2.2

So,

=64871296699.2

64871296699 persons.

If the trend had continued unchecked, close to 64871296699 people could have died from AIDS in 2005.