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Suppose an urn contains 100 marbles, 80 red and 20 black. A marble is drawn at...

Suppose an urn contains 100 marbles, 80 red and 20 black. A marble is drawn at random from the urn and you are asked to guess what color you believe the marble to be. The marble is then shown, replaced, and the urn's contents again randomized. The aim is to maximize the number of correct guesses. Before reading any further,

what strategy would you employ?

What would you guess?
Assume that 5 red marbles come out in a row.

What would your next guess be?

Why?

Include a brief discussion of the gambler's fallacy (Monte Carlo fallacy).

Math   Statistics-And-Probability   
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