Question

Suppose the Sixers and the Warriors are playing in the NBA finals (a seven game series). The first team to win four games wins the series. Assume the Sixers have a win probability for each game of 0.483. If the Sixers lose the first game, what is the probability that they win the series? Perform a Monte Carlo simulation to answer this question.

use r-studio!!! plz

Answer 1

A Mote Carlo Simulation code (in RStudio) to simulate the seven games times and calculating the probability of win of Sixers if they loose the first game is given below.

set.seed((57778))
n <- 10000
p <- 0
for( i in 1:n)
{
X <- sample(c(1,0),size=7,replace = TRUE, prob=c(0.483,1-0.483)) # 1 stands for Sixers win, 0 loss
if(X[1]==0)
{
if(length(X[which(X==1)])>=4)
{
p <- p + 1/n
}
}
}
p
We find the probability of win to be  0.1538.