h 04 HW 3 Forecasting problem Method: Exponential Smoothing optimized with Solver The data for this problem is shown in the table below. Note: changes from the original problem data are highlighted in yellow. Time (t) Actual A(t) 1 950 2 930 3 915 4 920 5 901 6 898 7 884 8 913 9 924 10 937 11 don't have yet What is the value for MSE using this method?
MSE = 244.7
Alpha | 1 | ||||||||
Beta | 0 | ||||||||
Data | Forecasts and Error Analysis | ||||||||
Period | Demand | Smoothed Forecast, Ft | Smoothed Trend, Tt | Forecast Including Trend, FITt | Error | Absolute | Squared | Abs Pct Err | |
Period 1 | 950 | 960 | 960 | -10 | 10 | 100 | 01.05% | ||
Period 2 | 930 | 950 | 0 | 950 | -20 | 20 | 400 | 02.15% | |
Period 3 | 915 | 930 | -15 | 15 | 225 | 01.64% | |||
Period 4 | 920 | 915 | 5 | 5 | 25 | 00.54% | |||
Period 5 | 901 | 920 | -19 | 19 | 361 | 02.11% | |||
Period 6 | 898 | 901 | -3 | 3 | 9 | 00.33% | |||
Period 7 | 884 | 898 | -14 | 14 | 196 | 01.58% | |||
Period 8 | 913 | 884 | 29 | 29 | 841 | 03.18% | |||
Period 9 | 924 | 913 | 11 | 11 | 121 | 01.19% | |||
Period 10 | 937 | 924 | 13 | 13 | 169 | 0.013874 | |||
Total | -23 | 139 | 2447 | 15.17% | |||||
Average | -2.3 | 13.9 | 244.7 | 01.52% | |||||
Bias | MAD | MSE | MAPE | ||||||
SE | 17.48928 |
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