In the following problem, check that it is appropriate to use
the normal approximation to the binomial. Then use the normal
distribution to estimate the requested probabilities.
What's your favorite ice cream flavor? For people who buy ice
cream, the all-time favorite is still vanilla. About 26% of ice
cream sales are vanilla. Chocolate accounts for only 13% of ice
cream sales. Suppose that 174 customers go to a grocery store in
Cheyenne, Wyoming, today to buy ice cream. (Round your answers to
four decimal places.)
(a) What is the probability that 50 or more will buy
vanilla?
(b) What is the probability that 12 or more will buy
chocolate?
(c) A customer who buys ice cream is not limited to one container
or one flavor. What is the probability that someone who is buying
ice cream will buy chocolate or vanilla? Hint: Chocolate
flavor and vanilla flavor are not mutually exclusive events. Assume
that the choice to buy one flavor is independent of the choice to
buy another flavor. Then use the multiplication rule for
independent events, together with the addition rule for events that
are not mutually exclusive, to compute the requested
probability.
(d) What is the probability that between 50 and 60 customers will
buy chocolate or vanilla ice cream? Hint: Use the
probability of success computed in part (c).
a)
mu = 0.26*174 = 45.24
sd = sqrt(0.26*0.74*174) = 5.7860
P(X > 50)
= P(z > (50 - 45.24)/5.7860)
= P(z > 0.8227)
= 0.2053
b)
mu = 0.13*174 = 22.62
sd = sqrt(0.13*0.87*174) = 4.4361
P(X > 12)
= P(z > (12 - 22.62)/4.4361)
= P(z > -2.3940)
= 0.9917
c)
probability = 0.26 * 0.13 = 0.0338
d)
probability = 0.26 + 0.13 - 0.0338 = 0.3562
mu = 0.3562*174 = 61.9788
sd = sqrt(0.3562*(1-0.3562)*174) = 6.3168
P(50 < X < 60)
= P((50 - 61.9788)/6.3168 < z < (60 - 61.9788)/6.3168)
= P(-1.8963 < z < -0.3133)
= 0.3481
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