Question

Consider the following time series data.

Week	1	2	3	4	5	6
Value	18	13	16	11	17	15

Using the naïve method (most recent value) as the forecast for the next week, compute the following measures of forecast accuracy.

(a)	Mean absolute error
	If required, round your answer to one decimal place.
(b)	Mean squared error
	If required, round your answer to one decimal place.
(c)	Mean absolute percentage error
	If required, round your intermediate calculations and final answer to two decimal places.
(d)	What is the forecast for week 7?

Answer 1

from naive method:

Time period	Actual Value(A)	Moving avg. Forecast(F)	Forecast error E=|A-F|	Squared Forecast Error	|A-F|A
1	18
2	13	18	5	25	0.3846
3	16	13	3	9	0.1875
4	11	16	5	25	0.4545
5	17	11	6	36	0.3529
6	15	17	2	4	0.1333
7		15
		Total	21	99	1.51
		Average	4.20	19.80	30.26%
			MAD	MSE	MAPE

a)

Mean absolute error =4.20

b)

Mean squared error =19.80

c)

Mean absolute percentage error =30.26%

d) forecast for week 7 =15