Question

(b)

Develop the three-week moving average forecasts for this time series. (Round your answers to two decimal places.)

Week | Time Series Value |
Forecast |
---|---|---|

1 | 16 | |

2 | 11 | |

3 | 13 | |

4 | 10 | |

5 | 14 | |

6 | 12 |

Compute MSE. (Round your answer to two decimal places.)

MSE =

What is the forecast for week 7?

(c)

Use *α* = 0.2 to compute the exponential smoothing
forecasts for the time series.

Week | Time Series Value |
Forecast |
---|---|---|

1 | 16 | |

2 | 11 | |

3 | 13 | |

4 | 10 | |

5 | 14 | |

6 | 12 |

Compute MSE. (Round your answer to two decimal places.)

MSE =

What is the forecast for week 7? (Round your answer to two decimal places.)

(d)

Compare the three-week moving average approach with the exponential smoothing approach using

*α* = 0.2.

Which appears to provide more accurate forecasts based on MSE? Explain.

The three-week moving average provides a better forecast since
it has a smaller MSE than the smoothing approach.The exponential
smoothing using *α* = 0.2 provides a better forecast since
it has a larger MSE than the three-week moving average
approach. The three-week moving
average provides a better forecast since it has a larger MSE than
the smoothing approach.The exponential smoothing using *α* =
0.2 provides a better forecast since it has a smaller MSE than the
three-week moving average approach.

(e)

Use a smoothing constant of *α* = 0.4 to compute the
exponential smoothing forecasts.

Week | Time Series Value |
Forecast |
---|---|---|

1 | 16 | |

2 | 11 | |

3 | 13 | |

4 | 10 | |

5 | 14 | |

6 | 12 |

Does a smoothing constant of 0.2 or 0.4 appear to provide more accurate forecasts based on MSE? Explain.

The exponential smoothing using *α* = 0.2 provides a
better forecast since it has a larger MSE than the exponential
smoothing using *α* = 0.4.The exponential smoothing using
*α* = 0.2 provides a better forecast since it has a smaller
MSE than the exponential smoothing using *α* =
0.4. The exponential smoothing
using *α* = 0.4 provides a better forecast since it has a
larger MSE than the exponential smoothing using *α* =
0.2.The exponential smoothing using *α* = 0.4 provides a
better forecast since it has a smaller MSE than the exponential
smoothing using *α* = 0.2.

Answer #1

b)

3 week | ||

Time period | Actual Value(A) | Moving avg. Forecast(F) |

1 | 16 | |

2 | 11 | |

3 | 13 | |

4 | 10 | 13.33 |

5 | 14 | 11.33 |

6 | 12 | 12.33 |

MSE = 6.11

forecast for week 7 =12

c)

Time period | Actual Value(A) | Forecast(F) |

1 | 16 | |

2 | 11 | 16.00 |

3 | 13 | 15.00 |

4 | 10 | 14.60 |

5 | 14 | 13.68 |

6 | 12 | 13.74 |

MSE = 10.66

forecast for week 7 =13.40

d)

The three-week moving average provides a better forecast since it has a smaller MSE than the smoothing approach

e)

Time period | Actual Value(A) | Forecast(F) |

1 | 16 | |

2 | 11 | 16.00 |

3 | 13 | 14.00 |

4 | 10 | 13.60 |

5 | 14 | 12.16 |

6 | 12 | 12.90 |

The exponential smoothing using *α* = 0.4 provides a
better forecast since it has a smaller MSE than the exponential
smoothing using *α* = 0.2.

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