There is a difference between statistical probability and
theoretical probability.
The theoretical probability of rolling a die and getting a 3 is 1/6
= .167
Suppose you perform an experiment rolling a die ten times. (A
sampling of ten
rolls). Eight out of the ten times you roll a three, so you find
that
the statistical probability of rolling a three based on this
experiment is 8/10 = .8
POSTING ASSIGNMENT
The statistical probability above is very different from the
theorized
probability. (Read about the types of probability in the book
before answering)
Part 1: What are the issues here if any? Think
about sample size
and the law of large numbers. Think about other possibilities.
Part 2: Suppose you use a larger sample and the results are the same?
part 1
We just did 10 times the experiment.. That's why die shows bias not equally likely.. Why this happened ? The answer to this is "Law of Large numbers"... . According to the law, the average of the results obtained from a large number of trials should be close to the expected value, and will tend to become closer as more trials are performed.
part 2
Answer is not same as the previous one... Since it obey law of Large numbers ... As sample size increase by increase you can see the result approaches to 1/6
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