Question

What is the probability of an earthquake next year, if the average rate of earthquakes is at least once every three years?

Answer 1

ANSWER:

From given data,

What is the probability of an earthquake next year, if the average rate of earthquakes is at least once every three years?

Let us say that

X = number of earthquakes in a year follow a Poisson process then its mean will be

1/3 per year,

Now ,

the probability of 1 earthquake next year will be

= [(1/3)¹ * e^-1/3] / 1 !

= 0.33 * e ^-0.33

= 0.23