Question

Instructions

The Data contains the actual values for 12 periods (listed in order, 1-12). In Excel, create forecasts for periods 6-13 using each of the following methods: 5 period simple moving average; 4 period weighted moving average (0.63, 0.26, 0.08, 0.03); exponential smoothing (alpha = 0.23 and the forecast for period 5 = 53); linear regression with the equation based on all 12 periods; and quadratic regression with the equation based on all 12 periods.  Round all numerical answers to two decimal places.

Data

The actual values for 12 periods (shown in order) are:

(1) 45  (2) 52 (3) 48 (4) 59  (5) 55  (6) 54  (7) 64  (8) 58  (9) 67  (10) 66  (11) 70  (12) 76

Questions

a) Using a 5 period simple moving average, the forecast for period 13 will be:

b) Using the 4 period weighted moving average, the forecast for period 13 will be:

c) With exponential smoothing, the forecast for period 13 will be:

d) With linear regression, the forecast for period 13 will be:

e) With quadratic regression, the forecast for period 13 will be:

f) Considering only the forecasts for period 6-12, what is the lowest MAD value for any of the methods?

Answer 1