Kansas Co. wants to invest in a project in China, It would require an initial investment of 5,000,000 yuan. It is expected to generate cash flows of 7,000,000 yuan at the end of one year. The spot rate of the yuan is $.12, and Kansas thinks this exchange rate is the best forecast of the future. However, there are 2 forms of country risk. First, there is a 40% chance that the Chinese government will require that the yuan cash flows earned by Kansas at the end of one year be reinvested in China for one year before it can be remitted (so that cash would not be remitted until 2 years from today). In this case, Kansas would earn 4% after taxes on a bank deposit in China during that second year. Second, there is a 50% chance that the Chinese government will impose a special remittance tax of 400,000 yuan at the time that Kansas Co. remits cash flows earned in China back to the U.S. The two forms of country risk are independent. The required rate of return on this project is 26%. There is no salvage value. What is the expected value of the project’s net present value?"
No country risk | Remittance must be invested for 1 year | Yuan remittance tax | both country risks | |
Yuan remitted by a subsidiary | 7,000,000 | 7,000,000 | 7,000,000 | 7,000,000 |
Withholding Tax | 400,000 | 400,000 | ||
Interest Rate | 0.04 | 0.04 | ||
Yuan after Interest Earned | 7280000 | 7280000 | ||
Yuan remitted after taxes | 6,600,000 | 6,880,000 | ||
Exchange Rate of yuan | $0.12 | $0.12 | $0.12 | $0.12 |
Cash flow to parent | $840,000.00 | $873,600.00 | $792,000.00 | $825,600.00 |
PV of parent cash flow (26%) | $666,666.67 | $550,264.55 | $628,571.43 | $520,030.23 |
Initial Investment in US$ | -$600,000.00 | -$600,000.00 | -$600,000.00 | -$600,000.00 |
NPV | $66,666.67 | -$49,735.45 | $28,571.43 | -$79,969.77 |
Probability | NPV * Probability |
70% * 60%(0.42) | $28,000.00 |
30% * 60%(0.18) | -$8,952.38 |
70% * 40%(0.28) | $8,000.00 |
30% * 40%(0.12) | -$9,59.367 |
NPV =$17,451($28,000.00+$8,000.00-$8,952.38-$9,59.367)
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