Question

Akron Zoological Park

During the late 1980s, the decline in Akron’s tire industry, inflation, and changes in governmental priorities almost resulted in the permanent closing of the Akron Children’s Zoo. Lagging attendance and a low level of memberships did not help matters. Faced with uncertain prospects of continuing, the city of Akron opted out of the zoo business. In response, the Akron Zoological Park was organized as a corporation to contract with the city to operate the zoo.

The Akron Zoological Park is an independent organization that manages the Akron Children’s Zoo for the city. To be successful, the zoo must maintain its image as a high-quality place for its visitors to spend their time. Its animal exhibits are clean and neat. The animals, birds, and reptiles look well cared for. As resources become available for construction and continuing operations, the zoo keeps adding new exhibits and activities. Efforts seem to be working, because attendance increased from 53,353 in 1989 to an all-time record of 133,762 in 1994.

Due to its northern climate, the zoo conducts its open season from mid-April until mid-October. It reopens for 1 week at Halloween and for the month of December. Zoo attendance depends largely on the weather. For example, attendance was down during the month of December 1995, which established many local records for the coldest temperature and the most snow. Variations in weather also affect crop yields and prices of fresh animal foods, thereby influencing the costs of animal maintenance.

In normal circumstances, the zoo may be able to achieve its target goal and attract an annual attendance equal to 40% of its community. Akron has not grown appreciably during the past decade. But the zoo became known as an innovative community resource, and as indicated in the table, annual paid attendance has doubled. Approximately 35% of all visitors are adults. Children accounted for one-half of the paid attendance. Group admissions remain a constant 15% of zoo attendance.

The zoo does not have an advertising budget. To gain exposure in its market, then, the zoo depends on public service announcements, the zoo’s public television series, and local press coverage of its activities and social happenings. Many of these activities are but a few years old. They are a strong reason that annual zoo attendance has increased. Although the zoo is a nonprofit organization, it must ensure that its sources of income equal or exceed its operating and physical plant costs. Its continued existence remains totally dependent on its ability to generate revenues and to reduce its expenses.

Source: Professor F. Bruce Simmons III, University of Akron.

YEAR	ATTENDANCE	ADMISSION FEE ($)
		ADULT	CHILD	GROUP
1998	117,874	4.00	2.50	1.50
1997	125,363	3.00	2.00	1.00
1996	126,853	3.00	2.00	1.50
1995	108,363	2.50	1.50	1.00
1994	133,762	2.50	1.50	1.00
1993	95,504	2.00	1.00	0.50
1992	63,034	1.50	0.75	0.50
1991	63,853	1.50	0.75	0.50
1990	61,417	1.50	0.75	0.50
1989	53,353	1.50	0.75	0.50

1.The president of the Akron Zoo asked you to calculate the expected gate admittance figures and revenues for both 1999 and 2000. Would simple linear regression analysis be the appropriate forecasting technique?

2.What factors other than admission price influence annual attendance and thus should be considered in the forecast?

Answer 1

1. As we can see, simple linear regression analysis might not be very effective in this case. Instead using a regression analysis with seasonal adjustments would have been able to give a better picture as it considers the external and internal environment as well, while doing the forecast analysis.
2. The factors that influence the annual attendance and must be considered in the forecast are:
   1. Weather considerations
   2. Festive and holiday seasons
   3. Attraction due to a new exhibit or activity

All these factors can affect the percentage of people, coming to the zoo.