Question
Use trial and error to find the value of alpha that minimizes MAD. Restrict the value...
Use trial and error to find the value of alpha that minimizes MAD. Restrict the value of alpha to be between .05 and .30.
| period | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 |
| demand | 60 | 52 | 55 | 42 | 57 | 33 | 26 | 42 | 35 | 31 |
Homework Answers
Answer #1
Answer: Alpha= 0.30
Explanation:
Absolute deviation= |Forecast - Sales|
MAD= mean absolute deviation= sum of absolute deviation/no. of periods
the formula to be used in Exponential smoothing is
Ft+1= alpha*At + (1-alpha) Ft
At means Actual demand of t'th month, if you want to find out the Forecast through exponential smoothing= forecast of 3rd month = alpha*actual demand of 2nd month+(1-alpha) *forecast demand of 2nd month
remember forecast of 1st month is actual demand of 1st month
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