Question

Use the data below to answer this questions.

a.) Generate a scatter of the data

b. ) Report the monthly averages (January for all years, February for all years etc.)

c.) Is there seasonality? Is there a trend?

d.) How can you forecast the value for March 2020? Generate that forecast.

e.) (Not technical) This forecast will for sure be wrong. Why?

Reference period	Employment 3
	Persons
Jan-01	1,879.50
Feb-01	1,901.00
Mar-01	1,925.30
Apr-01	1,914.60
May-01	1,961.50
Jun-01	1,960.60
Jul-01	1,953.40
Aug-01	1,940.20
Sep-01	1,928.00
Oct-01	1,909.20
Nov-01	1,896.40
Dec-01	1,881.40
Jan-02	1,880.20
Feb-02	1,884.00
Mar-02	1,902.60
Apr-02	1,913.40
May-02	1,937.40
Jun-02	1,990.90
Jul-02	1,994.80
Aug-02	2,013.10
Sep-02	2,002.30
Oct-02	1,982.50
Nov-02	1,969.00
Dec-02	1,959.20
Jan-03	1,928.20
Feb-03	1,952.40
Mar-03	1,980.40
Apr-03	1,972.00
May-03	1,987.80
Jun-03	2,018.70
Jul-03	2,027.80
Aug-03	2,030.20
Sep-03	2,012.20
Oct-03	2,032.30
Nov-03	2,008.30
Dec-03	2,026.80
Jan-04	1,982.30
Feb-04	1,967.20
Mar-04	1,981.60
Apr-04	1,977.40
May-04	2,020.50
Jun-04	2,074.90
Jul-04	2,069.50
Aug-04	2,064.10
Sep-04	2,050.80
Oct-04	2,057.30
Nov-04	2,037.30
Dec-04	2,056.50
Jan-05	2,017.60
Feb-05	2,030.60
Mar-05	2,039.10
Apr-05	2,051.70
May-05	2,097.70
Jun-05	2,115.90

Answer 1

Answers:

Answer a)

Months	Persons
Jan-01	1,879.50
Feb-01	1,901.00
Mar-01	1,925.30
Apr-01	1,914.60
May-01	1,961.50
Jun-01	1,960.60
Jul-01	1,953.40
Aug-01	1,940.20
Sep-01	1,928.00
Oct-01	1,909.20
Nov-01	1,896.40
Dec-01	1,881.40
Jan-02	1,880.20
Feb-02	1,884.00
Mar-02	1,902.60
Apr-02	1,913.40
May-02	1,937.40
Jun-02	1,990.90
Jul-02	1,994.80
Aug-02	2,013.10
Sep-02	2,002.30
Oct-02	1,982.50
Nov-02	1,969.00
Dec-02	1,959.20
Jan-03	1,928.20
Feb-03	1,952.40
Mar-03	1,980.40
Apr-03	1,972.00
May-03	1,987.80
Jun-03	2,018.70
Jul-03	2,027.80
Aug-03	2,030.20
Sep-03	2,012.20
Oct-03	2,032.30
Nov-03	2,008.30
Dec-03	2,026.80
Jan-04	1,982.30
Feb-04	1,967.20
Mar-04	1,981.60
Apr-04	1,977.40
May-04	2,020.50
Jun-04	2,074.90
Jul-04	2,069.50
Aug-04	2,064.10
Sep-04	2,050.80
Oct-04	2,057.30
Nov-04	2,037.30
Dec-04	2,056.50
Jan-05	2,017.60
Feb-05	2,030.60
Mar-05	2,039.10
Apr-05	2,051.70
May-05	2,097.70
Jun-05	2,115.90

Scatter of the data is as under:

Answer b)

The monthly averages (January for all years, February for all years etc.):

Month Year-01	Persons	Month Year-02	Persons	Month Year-03	Persons (Monthly Average)
Jan-01	1,879.50	Jan-02	1,880.20	Jan-03	1,879.85
Feb-01	1,901.00	Feb-02	1,884.00	Feb-03	1,892.50
Mar-01	1,925.30	Mar-02	1,902.60	Mar-03	1,913.95
Apr-01	1,914.60	Apr-02	1,913.40	Apr-03	1,914.00
May-01	1,961.50	May-02	1,937.40	May-03	1,949.45
Jun-01	1,960.60	Jun-02	1,990.90	Jun-03	1,975.75
Jul-01	1,953.40	Jul-02	1,994.80	Jul-03	1,974.10
Aug-01	1,940.20	Aug-02	2,013.10	Aug-03	1,976.65
Sep-01	1,928.00	Sep-02	2,002.30	Sep-03	1,965.15
Oct-01	1,909.20	Oct-02	1,982.50	Oct-03	1,945.85
Nov-01	1,896.40	Nov-02	1,969.00	Nov-03	1,932.70
Dec-01	1,881.40	Dec-02	1,959.20	Dec-03	1,920.30

Third year monthly average = (Month Year 01 + Month Year 02) / 2

Answer c)

There is both seasonality and trend:

As can be seen, there is cyclic changes in the monthly numbers so it is seasonal.

Also there is a trend increase from year 1 to year 2 (denoted by the straight line) so there is a trend.

Answer d)

Calculation of forecast the value for March 2020.

Yearly total for Year 2001 and Year 2002 is as under:

Year	Yearly total
Year-01	23051.1
Year-02	23429.4

Linear trend line for this forecast is :

y = 378.3x + 22673

“x” is the number of year (for year 2020, x=20)

Based on the linear trend line formula, the forecast till year 2020 is as under:

Year	Yearly total
Year-01	23051.1
Year-02	23429.4
Year-03	23807.9
Year-04	24186.2
Year-05	24564.5
Year-06	24942.8
Year-07	25321.1
Year-08	25699.4
Year-09	26077.7
Year-10	26456
Year-11	26834.3
Year-12	27212.6
Year-13	27590.9
Year-14	27969.2
Year-15	28347.5
Year-16	28725.8
Year-17	29104.1
Year-18	29482.4
Year-19	29860.7
Year-20	30239

Seasonal factor of the forecast is as under:

Month Year-01	Persons	Seaonal Factor	Month Year-02	Persons	Seaonal Factor
Jan-01	1,879.50	0.978	Jan-02	1,880.20	0.963
Feb-01	1,901.00	0.990	Feb-02	1,884.00	0.965
Mar-01 0 0 Add a comment Know the answer? Your Answer: Post as a guest Your Name: What's your source? Earn Coins Coins can be redeemed for fabulous gifts. Log In Sign Up Post as anonymous Post Your Answer Not the answer you're looking for? Ask your own homework help question Similar Questions Use the data below to answer this questions. Period Employment Jan-01 1,879.50 Feb-01 1,901.00 Mar-01 1,925.30... Use the data below to answer this questions. 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