Question

Sales of quit covers at at Jim's departmental store in Australia over the last 12 months...

Sales of quit covers at at Jim's departmental store in Australia over the last 12 months 2017 are shown below


Period: Actual Demand:
Jan. -20
Feb -21
March -15
April -14
May - 13
June - 16
July - 17
August. - 18
Sep - 20
October. -20
November. - 21
December. -24

Calculate:
I. Use a 3- month and 4-month average on all the data and plot averages and the actual demand.
II. Using MAD techniques determine which is better: the 3- month moving average or the 4 month moving averages?
III. Computer forecasts for each month using exponential smoothing with an alpha of 0.4 and 0.3 and with an initial forecast for January of 20. Using MAD, determine which alpha is the best?
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Homework Answers

Answer #1

Below are the formulae -

3-month Moving Average Ft+3= AVG(Dt+Dt+1+D+2)

4-months Moving Average Ft+4 = AVG(Dt+Dt+1+Dt+2+Dt+3)

Exponential smoothing Ft+1 = Ft+?*(Dt - Ft)

Below are the values -

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