Question

The demand for electric power at N.Y. Edison over the period 1999 to 2005 is shown...

The demand for electric power at N.Y. Edison over the period 1999 to 2005 is shown the following table in megawatts. Forecast 2006 the demand by fitting a straight-line trends to these date. Years Time period (x) Electrical power Demand (y) 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 74 79 80 90 105 142 122 a) Find the least squares trend equation for the above data. b) Project demand in 2006 as X=8

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Answer #1

Let ,

Forecasted demand = Y

Period = X

And , the linear regression equation using least square method is :

Y = a + b.X

a, b are constant

We now place all the values of Period and demand as presented above in excel and apply the formula LINEST ( ) . Accordingly , we obtain following values of a and b :

A = 56.714

B = 10.535

Therefore ,

Y = 56.714 + 10.535.X

Therefore project demand in 2006 ( i.e. for X = 8 )

= 56.714 + 10.535 X 8

= 56.714 + 84.28

= 140.994 ( 141 ROUNDED TO NEAREST WHOLE NUMBER )

LEAST SQUARE TREND EQUATION : Y = 56.714 + 10.535.X

PROJECT DEMAND IN 2006 = 141
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