Question

Using a five-year moving average, compute MSE and a
forecast for the year 11, for the following times
series. |
||||||||||

MSE= |
||||||||||

yhat_11= |
||||||||||

Year | Value | Forecast | Error | Error^2 | ||||||

1 | 324 | |||||||||

2 | 378 | |||||||||

3 | 401 | |||||||||

4 | 390 | |||||||||

5 | 425 | |||||||||

6 | 449 | |||||||||

7 | 456 | |||||||||

8 | 412 | |||||||||

9 | 525 | |||||||||

10 | 436 |

Answer #1

Since no data other than year data is given, I consider the year data for finding the forecasts.

The steps are explained.

Please put your any data and follow the steps explained to get the answer using 5 year moving average.

Please refer the image for the steps and solutions.

Refer to the gasoline sales time series data in Table 8.1.
Compute four-week and five-week moving averages for the time
series. Compute the MSE for the four-week and five-week moving
average forecasts. What appears to be the best number of weeks of
past data (three, four, or five) to use in the moving average
computation? Recall that the MSE for the three-week moving average
is 10.22.
Week
Sales (1000s of gallons)
1
17
2
21
3
19
4
23
5...

The following times series shows the demand for a particular
product over the past 10 months.
Month
Value
1
324
2
311
3
303
4
314
5
323
6
313
7
302
8
315
9
312
10
326
a. Use α = 0.2 to compute the exponential smoothing values for
the time series. Compute MSE, MAPE and a forecast for month 11.
b. Calculate MSE and MAPE for three month moving average ?
c. Compare the three-month moving average forecast...

Month
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Value
22
13
18
12
18
23
14
Consider the time series data
b. Develop the three-month moving average
forecasts for this time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for
month 8 (to 2 decimals if necessary). Enter negative values as
negative number.
Month
Time Series Value
Forecast
Forecast Error
Squared Forecast Error
Totals
MSE
The forecast for month 8
c. Use a=.2 to compute the exponential
smoothing forecasts for the time...

(b)
Develop the three-week moving average forecasts for this time
series. (Round your answers to two decimal places.)
Week
Time Series
Value
Forecast
1
16
2
11
3
13
4
10
5
14
6
12
Compute MSE. (Round your answer to two decimal places.)
MSE =
What is the forecast for week 7?
(c)
Use α = 0.2 to compute the exponential smoothing
forecasts for the time series.
Week
Time Series
Value
Forecast
1
16
2
11
3
13
4...

Consider the following gasoline sales time series data. Click on
the datafile logo to reference the data.
Week
Sales (1000s of gallons)
1
16
2
20
3
19
4
23
5
19
6
15
7
19
8
17
9
23
10
20
11
15
12
21
a. Using a weight of (1/2) for the most recent
observation, (1/3) for the second most recent observation, and
(1/6) third the...

These data show the number of gallons of gasoline sold by a
gasoline distributor in Bennington, Vermont, over the past 12
weeks.
Week
Sales (1,000s
of gallons)
1
17
2
21
3
19
4
23
5
18
6
16
7
20
8
18
9
22
10
20
11
15
12
22
(a)
Compute four-week and five-week moving averages for the time
series.
Week
Time Series
Value
4-Week
Moving
Average
Forecast
5-Week
Moving
Average
Forecast
1
17
2
21
3
19...

Refer again to the gasoline sales time series data in the
following table.
Week
Sales (1000s of gallons)
1
18
2
22
3
20
4
26
5
18
6
17
7
21
8
19
9
23
10
23
11
16
12
24
Using a weight of 1/2 for the most recent observation, 1/3 for
the second most recent, and 1/6 for third most recent, compute a
three-week weighted moving average for the time series. Use rounded
for two decimal places...

Consider the following time series data.
Month
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Value
24
13
18
12
18
23
15
b. Develop the three-month moving average
forecasts for this time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for
month 8
(to 2 decimals if necessary). Enter negative values as negative
number.
Month
Time Series
Value
Forecast
Forecast
Error
Squared Forecast
Error
1
24
2
13
3
18
4
12
?
?
?
5
18
?
?
?
6
23...

Refer to the gasoline sales time series data in the given
table.
Week
Sales (1000s of gallons)
1
18
2
21
3
18
4
22
5
17
6
15
7
20
8
18
9
21
10
20
11
14
12
22
Compute four-week and five-week moving averages for the time
series. Round your answers to two decimal places.
Week
Sales
4-Week
Moving Average
5-Week
Moving Average
1
18
2
21
3
18
4
22
5
17
6
15
7
20...

Consider the following time series data:
Month
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Value
24
13
20
12
19
23
15
Develop a three-month moving average for this time series.
Compute MSE and a forecast for month 8.
If required, round your answers to two decimal places. Do not
round intermediate calculation.
MSE:
The forecast for month 8:
(c)
Use α = 0.2 to compute the exponential smoothing values
for the time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for...

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