The marketing department needs to forecast the number of complaints arising from a particular defect in a product. The data for several months is supplied below. Be careful since the data is listed beginning with the most recent. The forecasting method to be used here is exponential smoothing accounting for seasonality with a smoothing constant of 0.75 and a previous forecast (with seasonality) of 390. Please round your forecast to the nearest whole number.
Jul 2020: 424 | Jun 2020: 472 | May 2020: 430 | Apr 2020: 332 | Mar 2020: 361 | Feb 2020: 379 |
Jan 2020: 343 | Dec 2019: 369 | Nov 2019: 330 | Oct 2019: 486 | Sep 2019: 482 | Aug 2019: 408 |
Jul 2019: 401 | Jun 2019: 456 | May 2019: 315 | Apr 2019: 372 | Mar 2019: 349 | Feb 2019: 423 |
Jan 2019: 479 | Dec 2018: 374 | Nov 2018: 441 | Oct 2018: 380 | Sep 2018: 356 | Aug 2018: 489 |
Jul 2018: 495 | Jun 2018: 466 | May 2018: 497 | Apr 2018: 401 | Mar 2018: 301 | Feb 2018: 414 |
Jan 2018: 349 | Dec 2017: 425 | Nov 2017: 385 | Oct 2017: 480 |
Answer:
Exponential smoothing Forecast formula:
F (t+1)= Ft+α(At-Ft)
Where,
α = Smoothing constant = 0.75
Ft = Forecast for immediate previous period
At = Actual Demand for immediate previous period
F (t+1) = Single exponential smoothing forecast for current period
Forecast for previous period = Forecast for Oct 2017 = 390
Hence the forecast using Exponential Smoothing is as under:
Month and Year |
Actual Number of defects |
Forecast Number of defects |
Oct-17 |
480 |
390 |
Nov-17 |
385 |
458 |
Dec-17 |
425 |
403 |
Jan-18 |
349 |
420 |
Feb-18 |
414 |
367 |
Mar-18 |
301 |
402 |
Apr-18 |
401 |
326 |
May-18 |
497 |
382 |
Jun-18 |
466 |
468 |
Jul-18 |
495 |
467 |
Aug-18 |
489 |
488 |
Sep-18 |
356 |
489 |
Oct-18 |
380 |
389 |
Nov-18 |
441 |
382 |
Dec-18 |
374 |
426 |
Jan-19 |
479 |
387 |
Feb-19 |
423 |
456 |
Mar-19 |
349 |
431 |
Apr-19 |
372 |
370 |
May-19 |
315 |
372 |
Jun-19 |
456 |
329 |
Jul-19 |
401 |
424 |
Aug-19 |
408 |
407 |
Sep-19 |
482 |
408 |
Oct-19 |
486 |
464 |
Nov-19 |
330 |
481 |
Dec-19 |
369 |
368 |
Jan-20 |
343 |
369 |
Feb-20 |
379 |
350 |
Mar-20 |
361 |
372 |
Apr-20 |
332 |
364 |
May-20 |
430 |
340 |
Jun-20 |
472 |
408 |
Jul-20 |
424 |
456 |
Smoothing constant = α = |
0.75 |
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