Question

Data collected on the yearly registrations for a Six Sigma seminar at the Quality College are shown in the following​ table:

Year	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11
Registrations (000)	5.00	7.00	5.00	5.00	9.00	9.00	8.00	11.00	13.00	14.00	15.00

​a) Calculate the forecasted registrations for years 2 through 12 using exponential​ smoothing, with a smoothing constant (α​) of 0.30 and a starting forecast of 6.00 for year 1

Year	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12
Forecast​ (000)	6.00		nothing	nothing	nothing	nothing	nothing	nothing	nothing	nothing	nothing	nothing

b.)Mean absolute deviation based on the forecast developed using the exponential smoothing method​ (with a smoothing constant (α​)=0.30 and a starting forecast of F₁=6.00 is ___ registrations

​

Answer 1

Actual Demand for month t= At

Forecast for month t = Ft

Smoothing constant = Alpha

Ft+1 = Ft + Alpha*(At - Ft)

Absolute Deviation in forecast = |At - Ft|

Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) = Average of absolute deviation over period 1 to 11 = 2.33 registrations