Case Study: Bridgewater Associates
One of the biggest challenges Bridgewater faces is the succession plan for the eventual departure of on-again, off-again CEO Ray Dalio. In March 2017, the Apple executive that was hired to potentially take over left after only 10 months on the job with Dalio posting online that “We mutually agree that he is not a cultural fit for Bridgewater.” It’s clear that Bridgewater’s culture of transparency, decision making, and fostered conflict and disagreement is not for everyone. Dalio is now halfway through what he has termed a 10-year succession plan and there appears to be no clear answer as to who is going to carry on the torch of the company’s “principles” and “radical transparency” (although Dalio has stated that he plans to remain at the company as a professional investor until he dies).
Dalio’s solution could very well be a form of artificial intelligence—a software system designed to automate management decisions that has been known within the company as the “Book of the Future” and most recently by its formal name: PriOS (Principles Operating System). PriOS, once complete, is designed to automate management within the firm based on its guiding 210 principles. How might this work? Well, first the software needs data about the decisions made in the firm and the people that make them, which it will get from numerous sources such as from the battery of personality and cognitive tests that every employee in the company takes. In addition, employees rate one another’s performance via an iPad application known as the “Dot Collector” on a daily basis. Information is also gathered via snap polls taken in meetings and staff take daily multiple-choice quizzes on management issues that occur within the company (correct and incorrect answers are logged over time).
These inputs are then processed by the operating system against Dalio’s Principles and ideally this results in direct information on whom to hire, fire, or employ in a specific situation, and even to provide detailed directions for employees on day-to-day tasks. Recent former employees have felt that working at Bridgewater has been like a giant experiment in human decision making. All employees have their own “baseball card” that anyone can see, which identifies their strengths and weaknesses on certain dimensions. Dalio plans for nearly 75 percent of the management decisions made at Bridgewater to be determined by PriOS within the next five years. In essence, the software will potentially be the embodiment of Ray Dalio after he is gone.
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How would you like to work for a company whose management decisions are primarily made by a computer (potentially in the image of its founder)?
It sounds, in principle, like a 'historic' phase, as if it was an artificial intelligence organization's only future. A human company run by an A.I. The internal ties of the business are going to lead astray.
Could a different firm without such detailed, strong "principles" do the same thing as Bridgewater?
Substantial "standards" and other organisations would certainly well to bridgewater, but I wouldn't recommend something or have to be in an organization of that kind. As innovation progresses and people are never made out of date, I recognize that it has never been done to do so anyway. I have a strong human association in mind, I accept that. In addition to standards, I agree that a superior choice is to have a progression line in place to manage organizations, regardless of the manner in which pioneers depart.
Do you see the creation of PriOS as a potential competitive advantage for Bridgewater or as something that won't survive long term after Dalio is gone?
I see the production of PriOS as something that won't continue for Bridgewater after Dalio is gone. Hierarchical choices ought to be made and incorporate the contribution of the genuine individuals that work for them. Representatives ought to be prepared, instructed and guided by people, not programming. As astonishing as innovation seems to be, people are interesting and can't be imitated nor supplanted by computerized reasoning. I can see PriOS working, on the off chance that it does, for just a short measure of time and when issues start to emerge, it will not, at this point, have that serious edge.
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