Question

You check your forecast for the past three periods and you notice that your forecast is 10 units above the actual demand for all the three periods. Then you conclude that the tracking signal for your forecast is equal to

A) 1/3

B) 2/3

C) 1

D) 0

E) None of the above

Answer #1

The forecast is 10 units above the actual demand for all the three periods

So the forecast errors i. e Actual value - forecasted value for all the three periods are - 10

The absolute errors I. e absolute value of error for all the three periods are 10

MAD = Sum of the absolute errors for all the periods / number of periods = (10+10+10)/3 = 30/3 = 10

Tracking signal = Cumulative Sum of errors / MAD

= [(-10)+(-10)+(-10)] / 10

= - 30/10

= - 3

So the answer is option E None of the above

The CEO requested forecasts based on the given historical
data. Put your final answers in the table.
Round answers to 3 decimals for each method. Show work for full
credit.
Period
Actual Demand
3 Month Moving Average
Moving Average Tracking Signal
3 Month Weighted Average
Weighted Average Tracking Signal
1
62
X
X
X
X
2
59
X
X
X
X
3
48
X
X
X
X
4
57
56.33
59.4
5
60
54.66
54.4
6
56
55
52.83
MAD
X...

The following are monthly actual and forecast demand levels for
May through December for units of a product manufactured by the D.
Bishop Company in Des Moines:
Month
Actual Demand
Forecast Demand
May
108
104
June
80
100
July
112
99
August
112
101
September
105
100
October
106
106
November
125
102
December
115
111
For the given forecast, the tracking signal = ___ MADs (round
your response to two decimal places).

The number of flowers sold at The Blossom Shop on Fridays is
shown in the table below.
Week
Demand
Week
Demand
Week
Demand
1
55
6
63
11
69
2
50
7
50
12
52
3
57
8
50
13
67
4
60
9
58
14
63
5
58
10
73
15
70
Round off all calculations to two decimal places. Maintaining
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PREDICTED DEMAND
Period
Demand
F1
F2
1
68
67
65
2
75
72
64
3
70
72
70
4
74
67
70
5
69
75
74
6
72
67
79
7
80
74
77
8
78
73
81
a.
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Three months ago
404 units
Two months ago
355 units
Last month
326 units
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number.)
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Excel, create forecasts for periods 6-13 using each of the
following methods: 5 period simple moving average; 4 period
weighted moving average (0.63, 0.26, 0.08, 0.03); exponential
smoothing (alpha = 0.23 and the forecast for period 5 = 53); linear
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A. The...

The manager of a travel agency has been using a seasonally
adjusted forecast to predict demand for packaged tours. The actual
and predicted values are as follows:
Period
Demand
Predicted
1
135
113
2
195
200
3
155
150
4
90
102
5
85
80
6
130
135
7
125
128
8
130
124
9
95
109
10
150
150
11
105
94
12
90
80
13
125
140
14
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128
a. Compute MAD for the fifth period,...

The manager of a travel agency has been using a seasonally
adjusted forecast to predict demand for packaged tours. The actual
and predicted values are as follows:
Period
Demand
Predicted
1
135
113
2
195
200
3
155
150
4
90
102
5
85
80
6
130
135
7
125
128
8
130
124
9
95
109
10
150
150
11
105
94
12
90
80
13
125
140
14
135
128
a. Compute MAD for the fifth period,...

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