Timmy is analyzing a five-year project with an initial cost of
$210,000, a required return of 16%, and a likelihood of success of
66%. If the project fails, it will generate an annual after-tax
cash flow (ATCF) of –$48,500. If the project succeeds, the annual
ATCF will be $79,000. Timmy has further determined that if the
project fails, he will shut it down after the first year and lose
all of his original investment. If, however, the project is a
success, he can expand it with no additional investment and
increase the after-tax cash flow to $174,000 a year for Years 2–5.
At the end of Year 5, the project would be terminated and have no
salvage value. What is the NPV of this project at Time 0?