Halliford Corporation expects to have earnings this coming year of $ 3.29 per share. Halliford plans to retain all of its earnings for the next two years. For the subsequent two years, the firm will retain 51% of its earnings. It will then retain 18%of its earnings from that point onward. Each year, retained earnings will be invested in new projects with an expected return of 22.87% per year. Any earnings that are not retained will be paid out as dividends. Assume Halliford's share count remains constant and all earnings growth comes from the investment of retained earnings. If Halliford's equity cost of capital is 9.4%, what price would you estimate for Halliford stock?
| Year | EPS | Retention | Growth | Dividend |
| 1 | $3.29 | 100% | 22.87% | $ - |
| 2 | $4.04 | 100% | 22.87% | $ - |
| 3 | $4.97 | 51% | 11.66% | $ 2.4338 |
| 4 | $5.55 | 51% | 11.66% | $ 2.7177 |
| 5 | $6.19 | 18% | 4.12% | $ 5.0784 |
| Horizon | $ 96.1196 | |||
| Price | $70.86 |
Forecast the EPS and dividends after calculating annual growth rate.
Growth rate = ROE x Retention ratio, where ROE = 22.87%
Horizon Value = D5 / (r - g) = 5.08 / (9.4% - 4.12%) = $96.12
Price = 2.4 / 1.094^3 + (2.72 + 96.12) / 1.094^4 = $70.86
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