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What should we use for expected market return? 10-year arithmetic average return of S&P 500 index....

What should we use for expected market return?

10-year arithmetic average return of S&P 500 index.

10-year geometric average return of S&P 500 index.

80-year arithmetic average return of S&P 500 index.

80-year geometric average return of S&P 500 index.
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