Suppose that you planning a 30-day vacation in Thailand, one year from now. The present charge for a hotel room plus meals cost in Thai baht (THB) is THB 10,500/day. The Thai baht presently trades at THB 31.6572/$. The hotel informed you that any increase in its room charges will be limited to any increase in the Thai cost of living. Thailand inflation is expected to be 0.95% per annum, while U.S. inflation is expected to be 2.25%.
1) | THB cost for 30 day vacation as of today = 10500*30 = | 315000.00 | THB |
THB cost 1 year later = 315000*1.0095 = | 317992.50 | THB | |
2) | Spot rate 1 year form now based on PPP = 31.6572*1.0095/1.0225 = | 31.2547 | THB/$ |
3) | Dollars needed 1 year from now = 317992.50/31.2547 = | $ 10,174.23 | |
4) | Dollar cost of the vacation today = 315000/31.6572 = | $ 9,950.34 | |
Dollar cost has gone up by 10174.23/9950.34-1 = | 2.25% | ||
Dollar cost has gone up due to inflation in US. |
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