Question

Compute the probability that the S&P 500 index value is greater than 2,400 in 1 year...

Compute the probability that the S&P 500 index value is greater than 2,400 in 1 year according to the Black Scholes model. Assume that the current level of the index is 2,200, the risk-free rate is 2% per annum, the dividend yield on the index is 1% per annum, and the volatility of the index is 20%.

Homework Answers

Answer #1

S is the dividend-adjusted stock price = 2200*e^(-0.01*1) = $2178

r is the risk-free rate = 0.02

Volatility = 0.2

Strike K = 2400

d1= ((ln(2178/2400) + (0.02+(0.2*0.2/2))*1)/(0.2*1)

d1= -0.285

d2 = -0.285 - (0.2*1) = -0.485

N(d2) = 0.3138

Probability that the S&P 500 index value is greater than 2,400 in 1 year according to the Black Scholes model is N(d2) = 0.3138

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