Compute the probability that the S&P 500 index value is greater than 2,400 in 1 year according to the Black Scholes model. Assume that the current level of the index is 2,200, the risk-free rate is 2% per annum, the dividend yield on the index is 1% per annum, and the volatility of the index is 20%.
S is the dividend-adjusted stock price = 2200*e^(-0.01*1) = $2178
r is the risk-free rate = 0.02
Volatility = 0.2
Strike K = 2400
d1= ((ln(2178/2400) + (0.02+(0.2*0.2/2))*1)/(0.2*1)
d1= -0.285
d2 = -0.285 - (0.2*1) = -0.485
N(d2) = 0.3138
Probability that the S&P 500 index value is greater than 2,400 in 1 year according to the Black Scholes model is N(d2) = 0.3138
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