Question two
State of Economy |
Probability of state of Economy |
Rate of return |
|
Stock A |
Stock B |
||
Recession |
0.20 |
-0.15 |
0.20 |
Normal |
0.50 |
0.20 |
0.30 |
Boom |
0.30 |
0.60 |
0.40 |
Expected Return = P1*R1 + P2*R2 + …..+ PnRn | ||||||
where, | ||||||
P = probability | ||||||
R = Rate of Return | ||||||
For Stock A, | ||||||
State of Economy | Probability of state of Economy (P) | Stock Ra | Exp. Ret. | R1 - Ra | (R1 - Ra)^2 | P*(R1 - Ra)^2 |
Recession | 0.2 | -0.15 | -0.03 | 0.4 | 0.16 | 0.032 |
Normal | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | -0.2 | 0.04 | 0.02 |
Boom | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.18 | -0.6 | 0.36 | 0.108 |
Total | 0.25 | 0.16 | ||||
For Stock B, | ||||||
State of Economy | Probability of state of Economy (P) | Stock Rb | Exp. Ret. | R1 - Rb | (R1 - Rb)^2 | P*(R1 - Rb)^2 |
Recession | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.04 | 0.11 | 0.0121 | 0.00242 |
Normal | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.15 | 0.01 | 0.0001 | 0.000005 |
Boom | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.12 | -0.09 | 0.0081 | 0.00243 |
Total | 0.31 | 0.004855 | ||||
Exp Ret (A) R1 = | 25% | S.D a= | 40% | |||
Exp Ret (B) R2 = | 31% | S.D b= | 6.97% |
Therefore , Expected return is more on Stock B with less volatallity i.e. S.D therefore, Stock B will be advised for the Investment.
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