A stock has an expected return of 10.44 percent. Based on the
following information, what is the stock's return in a boom state
of the economy?
State of Economy | Probability of State of Economy |
Rate of Return if State Occurs |
||
Recession | .31 | − | 9.9 | % |
Normal | .38 | 11.4 | % | |
Boom | .31 | ? | ||
30.95%
32.29%
29.60%
25.90%
27.75%
29.60%
An stock's return is the sum of return with each probability. | ||||||||||||
Stock return | = | Sum of (probability*rate of return) | ||||||||||
10.44% | = | (0.31*-9.9%)+(0.38*11.4%)+(0.31*rate of return in boom state of economy) | ||||||||||
10.44% | = | -3.07%+4.33+(0.31*rate of return in boom state of economy) | ||||||||||
10.44% | = | 1.26%+(0.31*rate of return in boom state of economy) | ||||||||||
10.44%-1.26% | = | 0.31*rate of return in boom state of economy | ||||||||||
9.18% | = | 0.31*rate of return in boom state of economy | ||||||||||
rate of return in boom state of economy | = | 0.296129 | ||||||||||
Thus, | ||||||||||||
Rate of return with Boom state of economy is | 29.61% | |||||||||||
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