What conclusion about inflation expectations would you reach if you evidenced an inverted yield curve?
When we see an inverted yield curve, it means that the rate of
interest on short term bonds is more than the rate of interest on
long term bonds. It means that the investors or lenders expect
higher return for short term bonds.
When investors require higher return in short term compared to long
term, it could mean that the market is expecting lower inflation in
future and investors require higher rate of return in short term to
compensate for the short term inflation.
It means, an inverted yield curve shows that the investors are
expecting lower inflation rate in future.
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