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Consider a 4-year, 5% annual coupon bond with a face value of $10,000, which was issued...

Consider a 4-year, 5% annual coupon bond with a face value of $10,000, which was issued three years ago. The bond just paid the coupon. Therefore, this bond has one year to maturity, and the next payment of the face and coupon will be made in exactly one year, after which the bond will cease to exist. If the bond defaults before next year, it will pay total of $8,000 in one year. The effective 1-year risk-free rate is 3.55%. If the bond is currently selling at $9,501.50, compute the risk-neutral probability that the bond will default within one year.

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