Can someone explain briefly if the forward prices in the energy markets have upward biases and why is that the case? (answer with an example would be much better, thx:) )
In most of the countries, energy industry is deregulated which leads to considerable amount of trading activity, in both the spot and trading market. Due to the involvement of price risk factor, prices are protected by hedging in the form of forward and future contracts.
Energy has a unique feature of non-storability. Therefore, the prices are driven by the spot production and consumption of the commodity. It leads to inelastic demand in the short term market. In the optimal hedging strategies, forward prices are compared to future spot prices and the increase in forward premiums are either due to rise in expected demand or demand risk.
Thus, short term forward contracts are upward biased indicator of future spot prices in accordance with the high volatility and risk associated with the energy sector.
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