You recently purchased a stock that is expected to earn 25 percent in a booming economy, 10 percent in a normal economy, and lose 38 percent in a recessionary economy. There is a 10 percent probability of a boom and a 75 percent chance of a normal economy. What is your expected rate of return on this stock?
Expected Return = Weighted Average
Let the probability be P and returns be X. The total of the PX column is the Expected Return
The expected return of the stock is 4.30%.
Notes
The total of probability has to be 1
= 1 - Probability of Boom - Probability of Normal
=1 - 0.10 - 0.75
= 0.15
Probability 75% can be written as 0.75
Probability 15% can be written as 0.15
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