Question

Project the EBITDA for the FY2020 using EBITDA margin average

You are an intern with an equity research organization. You have been given the task to project the values of certain income statement and balance sheet items for the next year (FY2020) for ABC Ltd (Your current time=0 is FY ending 2019). You have collected information about the historical income statement and balance sheet items. The historical information is provided in Table 1.

Table 1

PARTICULARS (All values in INR crores)	FY2019	FY2018	FY2017	FY2016
Sales Revenue	17273.00	15463.00	14789.00	13636.00
EBITDA	12213.00	9385.00	10237.00	Not given
Depreciation expense	1811.00	745.00	645.00	Not given
EBIT	10402.00	8640.00	9592.00	Not given
Interest	0.00	0.00	0.00	Not given
EBT	10402.00	8640.00	9592.00	Not given
Tax	2600.50	2160.00	2398.00	Not given
Net Profit	7801.50	6480.00	7194.00	Not given
Net PPE	17032.00	14522.00	13064.00	12813.00

Net PPE: Net Property Plant and equipment (Balance sheet item)

Answer 1

Historical EBITDA margin

2017 = 10237/14789 = 69.22%

2018 = 9385/15463 = 60.69%

2019 = 12213/17273 = 70.70%

EBITDA margin average for last 3 years = 66.87%

To project the EBITDA for FY 2020, we need sales for FY 2020

We will calculate average growth rate for sales to estimate the FY 2020 sales

Revenue growth 2017 = (14789-13626)/13626 = 8.54%

Revenue growth 2018 = (15463-14789)/14789 = 4.56%

Revenue growth 2019 = (17273-15463)/15463 = 11.71%

Average growth rate = 8.27%

FY 2020 sales = 17273* (1+0.0827)

= 18,701.5

FY 2020 EBITDA = 18701.5 * 66.87%

= $12,505.67

In this question we assumed the sales growth to estimate the FY2020 sales. Please post in comments if you have any issues.