James Fromholtz is considering whether to invest in a newly formed investment fund. The fund's investment objective is to acquire home mortgage securities at what it hopes will be bargain prices. The fund sponsor has suggested to James that the fund's performance will hinge on how the national economy performs in the coming year. Specifically, he suggested the following possible outcomes: James has estimated the expected rate of return from this investment is 18.00 percent. James wants to apply his recently acquired understanding of the security market line concept to his analysis. a. If the risk-free rate of interest is currently 2.5 percent and the beta for the investment is 2.0, what is the slope of the security market line for the real estate mortgage security investment? b. James is also considering the investment of his money in a market index fund that has an expected rate of return of 10 percent. What is the slope of the security market line (i.e., the reward-to-risk ratio) for this investment opportunity? c. Based on your analysis of parts a and b above, which investment should James take? Why?
State of Economy |
Probability |
Fund Returns |
|||
Rapid expansion and recovery |
5% |
100% |
|||
Modest growth |
45% |
35% |
|||
Continued recession |
45% |
5% |
|||
Falls into depression |
5% |
−100% |
a) | Slope of the SML for the real estate investment = (18-2.5)/2 = | 7.75 |
b) | Slope of the SML for the MM investment = (10-2.5)/(7.5/7.75)= | 7.75 |
CALCULATION OF BETA OF MM: | ||
Return on the real estate = 18 = 2.5+2*(Rm-2.5) | ||
Rm = (18-2.5)/2+2.5 = 10.25% | ||
Return on the MM = 10 = 2.5+beta (MM)*(10.25-2.5) | ||
Beta (MM) = (10-2.5)/7.75 = 0.96774 | ||
c) | Both the investments give the same reward to risk ratio. | |
However, James' preference would depend on whether he is | ||
risk taker or risk avoider. If he is a risk taker he can go for the | ||
real estate investment fund; if not he can prefer the MM | ||
investment. |
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