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The values of Alabama building contracts (in millions of dollars) for a 12-month period follow: 240...

The values of Alabama building contracts (in millions of dollars) for a 12-month period follow:

240 350 230 260 280 320 220 310 240 310 240 230

a. Construct a time series plot. What type of pattern exists in the data?

b. Compare a three-month moving average forecast with an exponential smoothing forecast. Use α=0.4.Which provides the better forecasts based on MSE?

c. What is the forecast for the next month?

d. Explain how you would find the optimum level of α for this data.

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