Question

Explain why predicting the future can be difficult, especially when there's innovation involved?

Answer 1

The statistical predicting models developed are all based on past historical behavior of the data which includes trend, seasonality and pattern in the data set. The models would segregate the data first in to these factors and used for prediction. So, the models would predict the future assuming all other factors to remain same as was in the past. So, the models would not be able to incorporate any new innovations and hence the accuracy of predictions varies.