1. Is NASCARs main goal to maximize profits? If not, what is their major goal? Is there a tradeoff involved here?
2. Is the motivation for the actions described in the NYT article (safety changes, blackbox data collection) connected to their goal? Explain.
3. If people tune in to see crashes (Nascar fans love crashes the way hockey fans love fights; when you watch the Speed Channel's edited replays of Nascar races, the plot is always the same: green flag, crash, crash, crash, crash, crash, checkered flag.) , what kinds of incentives does the sport need to balance between attracting paying fans and maximizing profits?
NYT MAGAZINE
THE WAY WE LIVE NOW: 2-19-06:
How Many Lives Did Dale Earnhardt Save?
By STEPHEN J. DUBNER AND STEVEN D. LEVITT (NYT) 1474 words
Published: February 19, 2006
Calculating a Driver's Risk
Five years ago this weekend, Dale Earnhardt crashed into a wall
during the final lap of the Daytona 500 and was instantly killed.
One of the most successful, beloved aNYT nd intimidating drivers in
Nascar history, Earnhardt is still actively mourned. (If you watch
today's Daytona 500, the first and most prominent race of the
Nascar season, you will surely see his No. 3 everywhere.)
Earnhardt's death was to Nascar as 9/11 was to the federal
government: a wake-up call leading to a radical overhaul of safety
measures. ''There were three or four bad accidents in a row there
over two or three years,'' says Matt Kenseth, an elite Nascar
driver. ''Nascar was always working hard on safety, but that'' --
Earnhardt's death -- ''really sped things up.''
Driving a race car is an obviously hazardous pursuit. When
Earnhardt died, he was the seventh driver within Nascar's three
major divisions -- the Craftsman Truck Series, the Busch Series and
the premier circuit now known as the Nextel Cup Series -- to die
within a period of seven years.
And how many drivers have been killed since his death in
2001?
Zero. In more than six million miles of racing -- and many, many
miles in practice and qualifying laps, which are plenty dangerous
-- not a single driver in Nascar's three top divisions has
died.
On U.S. roads, meanwhile, roughly 185,000 drivers, passengers and
motorcyclists have been killed during this same time frame. Those
185,000 deaths, though, came over the course of nearly 15 trillion
miles driven. This translates into one fatality for every 81
million miles driven. Although traffic accidents are the leading
cause of death for Americans from ages 3 to 33, this would seem to
be a pretty low death rate (especially since it includes
motorcycles, which are far more dangerous than cars or trucks). How
long might it take one person to drive 81 million miles? Let's say
that for a solid year you did nothing but drive, 24 hours a day, at
60 miles per hour. In one year, you'd cover 525,600 miles; to reach
81 million miles, you'd have to drive around the clock for 154
years. In other words, a lot of people die on U.S. roads each year
not because driving is so dangerous, but because an awful lot of
people are driving an awful lot of miles.
So Nascar's record of zero deaths in five years over six million
miles is perhaps not as remarkable as it first sounded. Still,
driving a race car would seem to be substantially more dangerous
than taking a trip to the supermarket. What has Nascar done to
produce its zero-fatality record?
It's a long list. Well before Earnhardt was killed, each driver was
already wearing a helmet, fireproof suit and shoes and a five-point
safety harness. Months after Earnhardt's death, Nascar began
requiring the use of a head-and-neck restraint that is tethered to
a driver's helmet and prevents his head from flying forward or
sideways in a crash. (Like many race-car drivers who are killed,
Earnhardt suffered a fracture to the base of the skull.) It erected
safer walls on its race tracks. And it began to zealously collect
crash data. This Incident Database (which Nascar politely declined
to let us examine) is gleaned from two main sources: a black box
now mounted on every vehicle and the work of a new Field
Investigation unit. These field investigators meticulously take key
measurements on every car before every race, and then if a car is
involved in a crash, they retake those measurements.
''In the past, a car would be in an accident, the driver would have
no injuries and the team would load up the car and go home,'' says
Gary Nelson, who runs Nascar's research and development center.
''But now they measure every car in certain areas, and we make a
log of that. Like the width of the seat -- it seems simple, the
width of the headrest from left to right. But in an accident, those
things can bend, and the amount they bend can help us understand
the energy involved. When we began, we thought our seats were
adequately strong, but we found these things to be bending more
than we thought. So we've come back since and rewritten the
regulations.''
Although it is wildly reductive to put it this way, a Nascar driver
has two main goals: to win a race and to not be killed. Nascar's
recent safety measures seem to have considerably reduced the
likelihood of being killed. So could it be that drivers are now
willing to be more reckless? When crashing is made less costly, an
economist would fully expect drivers to be crashing like crazy;
could it be that Nascar's safety measures have led to fewer deaths
but more crashes?
A quick look at the data seems to suggest so. In last year's Nextel
Cup races, there were 345 cars involved in crashes, an all-time
high. But, as Matt Kenseth points out, the two cup races held
during 2005 at Lowe's Motor Speedway near Charlotte, N.C., were
unusually brutal -- the track had a new surface that caused
numerous flat tires -- and may have aberrationally affected the
crash count. ''In Charlotte, pretty much everybody wrecked in both
races,'' he says. ''It was the fault of the track and the tires --
but if you take those races out of it, crashes are probably about
even.'' And there were actually fewer crashes in 2004 than there
were in 2003. While the number of overall crashes are up a bit
since Earnhardt's death (Nascar will not release annual crash
counts, but one official did confirm this trend), they haven't
increased nearly as much as an economist might have predicted based
on how Nascar's safety measures would seem to have shifted a
driver's incentives.
Maybe that's because there are other, perhaps stronger, incentives
at play. The first is that Nascar has increased its penalties for
reckless driving, not only fining drivers but also subtracting
points in their race for the cup championship. The other lies in
how the cup championship itself has been restructured. Two years
ago, Nascar gave its 36-race season a playoff format. In order to
qualify for the playoffs -- and have a chance at winning the $6
million-plus cup championship -- a driver must be among the points
leaders after the first 26 races of the season. While a couple of
20th-place finishes during those first 26 races won't necessary
ruin your championship hopes (each race fields a slate of 43 cars),
a few bad crashes might.
So Nascar has reduced a danger incentive but imposed a financial
incentive, thus maintaining the delicate and masterful balance it
has cultivated: it has enough crashes to satisfy its fans but not
too many to destroy the sport -- or its drivers. (Nascar fans love
crashes the way hockey fans love fights; when you watch the Speed
Channel's edited replays of Nascar races, the plot is always the
same: green flag, crash, crash, crash, crash, crash, checkered
flag.)
And here lies the most startling statistic concerning Nascar and
driver safety. In the past five years, more than 3,000 vehicles
have crashed in Nascar's three top divisions, with zero fatalities.
How does this compare with crashes on American highways? For
interstate travel, there are 5.2 driver deaths per 1,000 crashes.
At this rate, it would seem likely that those 3,000 Nascar crashes
would have produced at least 15 deaths -- and yet there have been
none. To be sure, there are significant differences between
Interstate driving and Nascar driving. A driver on the Interstate
has to contend with poor weather, drunken drivers and cars coming
at him in the opposite direction. On the other hand, a driver in
the Daytona 500 is often traveling at 180 miles per hour in
bumper-to-bumper traffic.
With more than 37,000 Americans dying in traffic accidents each
year, it might be tempting to impose some of Nascar's safety
regulations on the average driver. But considering how relatively
safe it is to drive in this country, the added costs, measured in
both dollars and comfort, would be steep. You might be willing to
wear a five-point safety harness instead of the typical three-point
lap-and-shoulder belt, and you would almost certainly be safer if
you did. But are you ready to put on a helmet and fireproof suit
every time you drive to the supermarket?
Answer 1;
Yes, the main goal of NASCAR is profit maximization. However, in this race of profit maximization it should not compromise with the safety regulations and safety measures needed to ensure security of the drivers and prevent accidents in future. This might involve increase in the cost in the short run but in the long run it will ultimately increase profits of the firm by increasing the number of drivers participating in the car race because of increased number of safety regulations and thus satisfy the goal of profit maximization of the firm.
Thus, a trade off is involved between the two measures but only in the short run and not in the long run.
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