Question

Read the 2019 Reason article, “No, Trump Rallies Didn’t Increase Hate Crime by226 Percent,” found here.1The article dissects a poorly-done study by threeTexas professors. In your textbook, there is a list of five statistical fallacies. Which two fallacies does the original study fall victim to? Explain.

Answer 1

The original study falls victim to the following two fallacies-

• Representativeness- The population they use is not representative of the whole population. They only used the counties where Trump rallies happened. By nature, the rallies usually happened at places with bigger population. The bigger the population, the higher the number of all types of crimes, including hate crimes. This distorted the whole data.
• Confirmation Bias- Since the proessors themselves had a bias (liberals outnumber conservatives 6 to 1 in academia), when the results were in line in what they expected, they assumed that the results must be true. That way they didnt scrutinize their own model very much.