Question

In the year 2020, the urban population of a country is 40,000 people. Back in the year 2000, the urban population was 35,000 people. The country’s total population in 2020 is 90,000 people, but in the year 2000 it was 45,000.

(a) What is the pace of urbanization between the years 2000 and 2020? In your answer, be sure to mention which of the two measures of “pace” you are using.

(b) Explain (in words) the reasoning that you followed to derive your answer to part (a).

Answer 1

a) we calculate it as:

(Rural population in 2020 / Rural population in 2000)/20, which will yield 50000 / 10000 / 20 = 0.25 [rural population has gone up]

Or

Ln(% of urban population in 2020/% of urban population in 2000)/20 = Ln(44%/78%)/20 [this also implies a reduction in urbanization over time]

b) We would normally expect both of these methods to yield a positive rate of urbanization. In this case, however, the total population of the country has grown 100% over this 20-year period, but migration to urban areas (or urbanization of erstwhile rural areas) didn't happen at the same rate