Question

What is the Bayesian method what is it used for in flood analysis

Answer 1

Bayesian method of flood analysis is a just another method with statistical model for estimating flood frequency by combining uncertain annual maximum (AMAX) data from a river gauge with estimates of flood peak discharge from various historic sources that predate the period of instrument records.

It can be used for the following :

a) Estimates of the frequency of extreme floods are highly uncertain.

b) Prime source of uncertainty is limited availability of data.

c) A Bayesian model combines gauge data with historic flood records.

d) Confidence limits in estimated frequency of extreme flood events reduced by ∼50%.