You have a case in court. You believe with probability p=3/4 that you will WIN. You are considering to ask a lawyer for his opinion as to whether you will WIN. Your belief as to whether the lawyer's opinion is correct is q=4/5. In case the lawyer tells you that you will WIN, what will your belief be that you will WIN ? If p=3/4, q=1/2 ? If p=1/2, q=4/5 ?
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