Question

Question 5: Forecasting (8 p)

The table below shows the demand (in units per quarter) of a specific product in the past three years.

Quarter Year	1	2	3	4
2015	350	254	176	228
2016	367	258	169	236
2017	342	250	166	228

Predict demand in quarter 1 and quarter 2 of 2018, given that the demand forecast for the whole year is a total of 1,040 units.

Answer 1

Demand forecast for 2018:
Quarter 1	=	364	units
Quarter 2	=	260	units
Workings:
Year	Quarter 1	Quarter 2	Quarter 3	Quarter 4	Total
2015 (i)	350	254	176	228	1008
Percentage of total [(i) / 1008]	35%	25%	17%	23%
2016 (ii)	367	258	169	236	1030
Percentage of total [(ii) / 1030]	36%	25%	16%	23%
2017 (iii)	342	250	166	228	986
Percentage of total [(iii) / 986]	35%	25%	17%	23%
Demand forecast for 2018:
Quarter 1	=	1040 units X 35%
	=	364	units
Quarter 2	=	1040 units X 25%
	=	260	units