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You are interested in an investment project that costs $44,625 initially. The investment has a 5-year horizon and promises future end-of-year cash inflows of $11,900, $12,495, $11,305, $8,925, and $8,330, respectively. Your current opportunity cost is 6.83% per year. However, the Fed has stated that inflation may rise by 1.5% or may fall by the same amount over the next 5 years.
Assume a direct positive impact of inflation on the prevailing rates (Fisher effect) and answer the following questions: (Assume that inflation has an impact on the opportunity cost, but that cash flows are contractually fixed and are not affected by inflation.)
a) What is the net present value (NPV) of the investment under the current required rate of return?
b) What is the net present value (NPV) of the investment under a period of rising inflation?
c) What is the net present value (NPV) of the investment under a period of falling inflation?
d) From your answers in (a), (b), and (c), what relationship do you see emerge between changes in inflation and asset valuation?
working note -1 G2=1/1.683
d4 = first option at the end of first year
0.0683 | =1/1 | ||||||||
years | option -1 at current inflation rate | option-2 at increase in infaltion rate | option-3 derease in infaltion rate | ||||||
1 | =1/1.683 | =+D4*1.015 | =+E4*1.015 | ||||||
2 | =+D4*$G$2 | =+D5*1.015 | =+E5*1.015 | ||||||
3 | =+D5*$G$2 | =+D6*1.015 | =+E6*1.015 | ||||||
4 | =+D6*$G$2 | =+D7*1.015 | =+E7*1.015 | ||||||
5 | =+D7*$G$2 | =+D8*1.015 | =+E8*1.015 | ||||||
after above calculation | the resultant figures are as | folllows | |||||||
6.83% | 1 | ||||||||
years | option -1 at current inflation rate | option-2 at increase in infaltion rate | option-3 derease in infaltion rate | ||||||
1 | 0.594177065 | 0.6030897 | 0.6121361 | ||||||
2 | 0.353046384 | 0.3583421 | 0.3637172 | ||||||
3 | 0.209772064 | 0.2129186 | 0.2161124 | ||||||
4 | 0.124641749 | 0.1265114 | 0.128409 | ||||||
5 | 0.074059269 | 0.0751702 | 0.0762977 | ||||||
after attaining table value | we need to calculate discounted | cash inflows asa follows | |||||||
solution for a | solution for b | solution for c | |||||||
option-1 | option-2 | option-3 | |||||||
initial out flow | A | -44625 | -44625 | -44625 | |||||
cash inflows | cash inflows(1) | discount rate (2) | Discounted inflows(1*2) | cash inflows(3) | discount rate (4) | Discounted inflows(3*4) | cash inflows(5) | discount rate (6) | Discounted inflows(5*6 |
year 1 | 11900 | 0.594177065 | 7070.707 | 11900 | 0.603089721 | 7176.77 | 11900 | 0.612136067 | 7284.42 |
year2 | 12495 | 0.353046384 | 4411.315 | 12495 | 0.35834208 | 4477.48 | 12495 | 0.363717211 | 4544.65 |
year 3 | 11305 | 0.209772064 | 2371.473 | 11305 | 0.212918645 | 2407.05 | 11305 | 0.216112425 | 2443.15 |
year 4 | 8925 | 0.124641749 | 1112.428 | 8925 | 0.126511376 | 1129.11 | 8925 | 0.128409046 | 1146.05 |
year 5 | 8330 | 0.074059269 | 616.9137 | 8330 | 0.075170158 | 626.167 | 8330 | 0.07629771 | 635.56 |
B | 15582.84 | 15816.6 | 16053.8 | ||||||
NPV | A+B | -29042.2 | -28808 | -28571 | |||||
d. therefore from above cal | culations we could see increase | in inflation rate leads to | lesser inflows | and lead to lesser | NPV and vice versa |
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