Question

# Consider the following time series data. Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 Value 20 12...

Consider the following time series data.

 Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 Value 20 12 15 11 19 15

Using the naïve method (most recent value) as the forecast for the next week, compute the following measures of forecast accuracy.

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What is the forecast for week 7? Round your answer to the nearest whole number.

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 Week Value [Time] Forecast Error Absolute Error Square Error % error Absolute % error 1 20 [Error/Time] 2 12 20 12-20 = -8 8 64 -67% 67% 3 15 12 15-12 = 3 3 9 20% 20% 4 11 15 11-15 = -4 4 16 -36% 36% 5 19 11 19-11 = 8 8 64 42% 42% 6 15 19 15-19 = -4 4 16 -27% 27% TOTAL 27 169 -68% 192% 0 Mean absolute error = Absolute Error/n = 27/5 5.4 Mean Square Error= Square Absolute Error /n = 169/5 33.8 Mean absolute % error = Absolute % error /n = 192%/5 38.40% What is the forecast for week 7 = Actual value for week 6 = 14

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